Introduction: Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women worldwide with a rising incidence rate in most countries, due to the increased life expectancy, urbanization and lifestyle changes. This study was conducted to predict the breast cancer incidence trend among Iranian Women till 2020.
Method: The ten-year trend of breast cancer incidence in Iran was investigated using the trend analysis method. The 1997 and 2006 census results were used for the projection of female population by age groups through the cohort-component method over the studied years and the data from the Iranian cancer registration system were used to calculate the annual incidence rate of breast cancer. The population of each age group by year, and the standard population, extracted from the WHO’s standard distribution in 2000 and between 2000and 2025 for calculation of trend with this model.
Result: The growing trend in the breast cancer incidence with a steep slope during 2000 to 2002 can be attributed due to the evolution of Iranian cancer registration system, which leads to the identification of higher number of patients. Therefore, the annual change (%) during 2005 to 2009,which had a mild slope, was used to predict the age-adjusted incidence rate of breast cancerduring2010-2020.through which the incidence of breast cancer in 2020 was predicted as 63.0 per 100,000 women(it was33.6 per 100,000 women in 2010).
Conclusions: According to our findings the increasing trend of breast cancer in Iranian women needs serious attention of health system policy makers, researchers and health professionals. It is necessary to prepare a national program for screening and care of breast cancer as soon as possible. Also we have to develop national cancer registry for better evaluation of future trend of breast cancer.