Title : Climate change in a mountainous region with high spatial variation of precipitation, Zagros, Iran
Abstract:
The impact of climate change in Zagros region, which makes 40% of Iran’s water resources, was investigated in two 30-year periods (i.e. 2021-2050: near future and 2051-2080: far future) under three Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP1-1.9, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Thus, daily outputs from multi-model ensemble were downscaled using LARS-WG. Furthermore, climate condition and drought were analyzed using two indices, SPI and eRDI. The average annual precipitation in comparison to that of baseline in the near and far future periods increases by 24% and 28% under SSP1-1.9 scenario, decreases by 6% and 9% under the SSP2-4.5 and experiences a rise of 3% and a drop of 1% under SSP5-8.5, respectively. The coldest place with the highest altitude observes the greatest changes in precipitation and temperature while warmer places with low altitude might not bear much change. Such results could indicate, at least to some extent, the dependency of the rate of temperature rise and precipitation change to altitude. The difference between SPI and eRDI is more pronounced in warmer places and under SSP5-8.5 scenario while based on aridity index some semi-arid areas are at risk of becoming arid under SSP2-4.5, which could be crucial in water resources management and agricultural sectors.
Audience Take Away:
- The strong aspect of this manuscript is the key findings of altitude dependency of climate change impact in Zagros region with great significance in terms of water resources.
- The impact of climate change under three Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP1-1.9, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), was investigated using LARS-WG.
- The degree of climate change effect on precipitation and temperature was explored.
- Climate condition and drought were analyzed using two indices, SPI and eRDI.
- This research should be of interest to a broad readership including those interested in climate, meteorology, environmental concerns, agriculture, and water resources management.
