Title : Climate change effects on species of bovidae family in Iran
Abstract:
Climate change and its effect on life is a big challenge for scientists all over the world. Global biodiversity has diminished in recent years because of climate change, human developments and some other factors. One reason for wildlife population loss is habitat degradation caused by climate change. Predicting habitat suitability can help wildlife managers to protect wildlife more effectively. Accordingly, in this study, we used present habitat suitability of five species of wild Bovidae in Iran to predict climate change effects on their habitats for a future condition over 62 years. To predict this, four RCPs and one GCM in four CC scenarios were used. Our results revealed that climate variables are important to predict suitable habitats. This study showed that at present time suitable habitats for wild goat, Urial wild sheep, Armenian wild sheep, goitered gazelle and jebeer in Iran’s total area are 5.5%, 5.8%, 5.9%, 4.9% and 5.2%, respectively. The results also reveal that in the future 59.83%, 60.89%, 59.18%, 53.57%, 69.86% of current suitable habitats will be lost for each species, respectively, over 62 years. Based on the result of our study, it seems more than 60% of suitable habitat for the studied species will be destroyed over this time period. In our opinion, wildlife managers should consider the remaining suitable habitats as some parts of a protected area before the conditions get irreversible.
Audience Takeaway:
- This research, which has used the most reliable common models in conservation biology and whose validation results are also high, can be used as model research in research related to species distribution prediction. The combination of SDM and BIOCLIM can be used in various research areas. Even though there are new models such as JSDM, these models are still widely used.
- The audience can use this presentation to get a practical picture of the intersection between climate change and conservation biology. The ecological model used is one of the best known and most reliable models combined with climate scenarios. Considering that most climate studies have looked at the status of carnivores rather than herbivores, this macro-level study provides a good overview of the effects of climate on herbivore distribution.
- Yes. This research can be used to examine the development of conservation biology models and compare their quality with other models. In addition, the audience can further develop the models used in these articles in future research with IPCC6 and Deep Learning models.
