Abstract:
Objective: The objective of this work was to investigate the potential role (interaction) of climate variability on the current behavior of urban populations in resorting to food imports as a response to household food challenges during the lean season and periods of conflict.
Materials & Methods: This was a cross-sectional, analytical study based on a sample of 115 urban respondents interviewed at sites of selling imported food stuffs. Primary data were collected using a semi-structured survey questionnaire, which was used to document imported foods sold and consumed in various markets in Bukavu town. Secondary data, historical statistics on food production in South Kivu Province, were obtained from IPAPEL. Secondary climate data was from the LWIRO, INERA, and ISP Bukavu weather stations as well as data on malnutrition rates in the province, were obtained from the DPS. Primary data from surveys of markets in Bukavu were used to obtain information on the availability of food products on the market in comparison with production over the past 10 to 20 years, as well as to gain insight into imports. Sellers were selected according to certain sustainability criteria redefined in certain sites to maximize the collection of good data, and the chi-square test was used to compare the opinions of respondents in the different data collection sites. This study used empirical modeling integrating secondary and primary data. Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) were chosen as the type of regression to identify the factors likely influencing the choice of importation of the products sold. Linear quadratic regressions were used to identify the probable influence of climatic factors on historical food production. These regressions were calculated to determine the relationship between variations in climatic factors, food production, and malnutrition rates. The coefficient of determination R2 at a significance level of p<0.05.
Results: The results indicate that cereal production over the last 10–20 years was abundantly available in the Bagira (28.13%) and Kadutu (42.11%) markets. Tuber production products were available over the last 10–20 years, averagely in the Bagira markets (34.62%) and highly abundant in the Kadutu (37.08%) and Ibanda (38.90%) markets. Legume production over the past 10–20 years was highly available in the Bagira (31.58%) and Kadutu (42.11%) markets. Compared to the last 10 years, food prices have risen sharply in the Kadutu market (100.00%), slightly increased in the Bagira market (33.33%) and Iwanda market (66.67%). The sale of imported or local food was likely to be negatively positively influenced for the following reasons: appreciation and preference for imported food products by consumers (GLM: z=-2.09, p=0.037), the fluctuation in the rate of legume production over the last 10-20 years (GLM: z=-9.53, p<0.0001), current tuber production status (GLM: z=-2.55, p=0.011), and the name of the or type of market visited (GLM: z=-5.25, p<0.0001), public belief that the climate has changed over the last 10 years (GLM: z=-2.36, p=0.018), the type of food product mostly demanded and traded in the market (GLM: z=-2.03, p=0.043); the availability of food in general as compared to the last 15 years (GLM: z=14.75, p<0.0001), by the current rate of tuber production (GLM: z=3.51, p<0.0001), by the respondent's gender (GLM: z=8.99, p<0.0001), religion of the respondent (GLM: z=2.92, p<0.0001), or the length of professional experience of the respondent (GLM: z=3.03, p=0.002), or by the type of food products imported and traded (GLM: z=3.10, p=0.002).
The rate of moderate malnutrition was found to be positively associated with climatic factors (rainfall) over the last 10-20 years (R²=91%, p<0.001), and was also found to be associated with the overall malnutrition rate (R²=71%, p<0.001). However, climatic factors (rainfall) were not found to be correlated with the rate of severe acute malnutrition (p>0.05). The overall malnutrition rate was found to be positively associated with food production in general in the province for different types of crops (R²=73%, p<0.001).
Conclusion and way forward: This study found that climate variability has an impact on food production and availability and access in urban areas. Given that the current downward trend is due to several socio-political factors (conflicts, wars), the public is tempted to develop a survival or resilience strategy to adapt to the decline in multiracial food production system, including resorting to importing food and selling it in urban areas in response to the growing demand from the consumer population. Climate variability, coupled with insecurity and poor food security governance policies, is having a negative impact on all food production channels (animal and plant production). Food price instability is one of the factors driving the population to import food. This is also due to the decline in food production, which accounts for 73% of malnutrition rates in the provinces. In-depth research on food resilience strategies would be important to be conducted in the future in different territories and provinces, with much greater emphasis on the balance of imports and exports for the storage and processing for value addition of food reserves by communities. This information would help to significantly improve spatio-temporal nutritional policy in response to various local and regional environmental and socio-political challenges.
Keywords: Climate Variability, Nutritional Resilience, Reliance on Food Imports, Consumer Basket, Environmental Disruption, Adaptation Strategies, Urban Areas, South Kivu, DRCongo.
